Solid IPO Activity Still Likely into Early 2027

Oct 8, 2026 5:25PM EDT

Written by Phil Mackintosh and Michael Normyle

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Key Takeaways

• Disruptions Resurface: Collapsed Iran ceasefire, rising energy prices, and a Fed rate hike pushed 10-year yields to ~5.3% — the highest since 2002.
• IPO Pulse Softens, Not Downturn: Nasdaq IPO Pulse hit a six-month low in September, but the slowdown is far milder than past cyclical downturns.
• Record Capital Raised: U.S. operating companies raised $34B in Q3 — more than all of 2022, 2023, or 2024 — bringing YTD to $146B, surpassing 2021's full-year record.
• Stockholm Stays Strong: Nasdaq Stockholm IPO Pulse near recent highs, with ~€600M raised YTD — already topping full-year 2022 and 2023 totals.

When we last updated our IPO Pulses for the U.S. and Stockholm in July, with data through June, we looked for “[initial public offering] activity upswings [to] reassert themselves as disruptions fade.” 

Well, those disruptions didn’t quite fade. 

Renewed disruptions slow IPO activity in the third quarter

The ceasefire in the Iran conflict, which was going strong in June, has since collapsed, with no end in sight to the conflict. That’s helped keep upward pressure on energy prices, adding to inflation, along with strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) data center components. 

As a result, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this year rose from about a two-thirds chance in June (on average) to a certainty, with the Fed hiking 25 basis points (bp) last month and projecting another hike this year.

This adjustment in rate expectations, along with the economy’s continued resilience, has contributed to a run up in bond yields, with 10-year Treasury yields rising from around 4.5% in June to 5.3% – around their highs since 2002 – by the end of September. 

Higher interest rates directly feed through to multiple components of the Nasdaq IPO Pulse. 

• The year-over-year change in the Fed funds rate is a component, which has obviously increased, and is a drag on the index. 
• Growth in the S&P 500 enterprise value-to-sales ratio has slowed as higher rates not only boost the discount rate – hurting a company’s value – but also reduce the value of the company’s existing debt. 
• Growth in the S&P 500 price has slowed somewhat as higher rates are a headwind to valuations, despite strong earnings growth. 

Recent slowing in Nasdaq IPO Pulse too minor to signal downturn

As a result, the Nasdaq IPO Pulse slowed to a six-month low in September.

In line with this softening in the IPO Pulse, operating company IPO activity slowed in the third quarter, with 26 companies going public – the same number as the first quarter, which faced its own series of disruptions, ranging from the “SaaSpocalypse,” a partial government shutdown and the start of the Iran conflict. 

Chart 1: Nasdaq IPO Pulse down to six-month low in September

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Importantly, though, this recent slowing in the IPO Pulse is not yet indicating a cyclical downturn in IPO activity. That’s because, when comparing this recent slowing to past downswings in the IPO Pulse that signaled downturns in IPO activity, it is far milder than those other downswings. 

So, while prospects for U.S. IPO activity have clearly eased a bit since the summer, they are likely to remain solid at least into early 2027, unless we see a more significant decline in the IPO Pulse. 

Third-quarter capital raise exceeded all of 2022, 2023 and 2024

In fact, IPO activity in the third quarter wasn’t as soft as it might seem. That’s because capital raised was quite strong. 

Operating companies raised $34 billion in the third quarter (red bars). That’s more than was raised in all of 2022, 2023, or 2024. Even the first quarter this year, which also saw 26 operating company IPOs, raised just $10 billion.

Of course, the majority of this came from SKHY – the Nasdaq-listed ADR for SK Hynix – which alone raised $26.5 billion. 

Chart 2: Despite dip in number of IPOs, third-quarter capital raised reached $34 billion

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So, through three quarters, operating companies have raised $146 billion in IPOs (89% on Nasdaq), clearly surpassing 2021’s $141 billion for the most capital raised in a year. And there’s talk of more historic IPOs in the fourth quarter, potentially joining SPCX and SKHY to push the capital raise record even higher still! 

With the Nasdaq IPO Pulse still not in a downturn, the cyclical drivers of IPO activity are still relatively supportive into early 2027. 

Stockholm IPO Pulse signals positive outlook into early 2027

In Stockholm, the picture is more unambiguously positive. 

The Nasdaq Stockholm IPO Pulse continues to hover just below recent highs, indicating that the cyclical drivers of IPO activity remain clearly supportive into early 2027.

Consistent with this, IPO activity has remained robust, seeing six new listings in the third quarter after seeing seven in the second quarter. 

By capital raised, Nasdaq Stockholm raised €160 million in the third quarter after raising €380 million in the second quarter. For the year, Nasdaq Stockholm has raised nearly €600 million, already surpassing the full-year capital raises of 2022 and 2023. 

Chart 3: Nasdaq Stockholm IPO Pulse hovering near recent highs

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Drivers of IPO activity supportive despite ongoing disruptions

Despite ongoing disruptions, the Nasdaq IPO Pulses for the U.S. and especially Stockholm indicate a supportive environment for IPO activity into early next year. 

For the U.S., this means that an already record-setting year for capital raised is positioned to see that record move higher (possibly much higher). In Stockholm, a strong end to a very good year looks likely. 

And, if we see these recent disruptions fade, that will only open the IPO window wider. 

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IPOs US Markets World Markets